By Aung Hla Tun
YANGON (Reuters) - A delegation of senior U.S. officials arrived in Myanmar Tuesday for Washington's highest-level talks with the reclusive military regime in 14 years.
The Obama administration's move to engage the junta appears focused on pushing for free and fair elections next year, although analysts say the rapprochement is as much about geopolitics and the growing regional influence of China.
Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell leads the delegation meeting the junta in its new capital Naypyidaw before traveling to Yangon for talks with detained Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) party.
The United States has said little ahead of the two-day visit, widely seen as exploratory dialogue to see how sincere the notoriously distrustful generals are about democratic reforms.
"The U.S. wants to suss out whether or not they have a genuine dialogue partner," said Sean Turnell, a Myanmar analyst at Australia's Macquarie University.
"The overtures toward warming ties with the U.S. have come from officials lower down and the U.S. is trying to get a feel for how committed the generals are."
Campbell met Myanmar's minister of science, technology and labor in New York in September after Washington announced it would pursue deeper engagement to try to spur democratic reform.
SANCTIONS TO STAY
Campbell has rejected calls by critics to ease restrictions on trade and investment in the former Burma, insisting dialogue would "supplement rather than replace the sanctions regime."
A government source in Naypyidaw said Campbell, the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Myanmar since Madeleine Albright in 1995, was expected to meet with government ministers and senior junta figures, including Prime Minister Thein Sein.
"But he's not likely to meet the senior general," said the source, referring to Than Shwe, the junta supremo who has led the country for the last 17 years.
Critics of the regime say it could be using the U.S. visit for its own gain, to try to give legitimacy to its democratic "road map" and show key ally China, its economic lifeline, that it is not its only friend.
Than Shwe's snub is being seen as an indicator of the generals' commitment toward reforms and a sign of whether the U.S. engagement can really be effective.
"Avoiding Campbell means the senior general is not ready to compromise. I think he will fall short of the expectations of the new U.S. administration," said a retired civil servant in Yangon.
Thakhin Chan Tun, a retired diplomat, added: "We can't expect any tangible immediate results...Than Shwe is the one who makes all the decisions on all important policy issues."
Some analysts say that with ties strained between China and
Myanmar - over instability along their border - the generals are keen to reduce their reliance on Beijing and have sought to shore up ties with India, Russia and their Southeast Asian allies.
"Burma's ties with China may have been exaggerated and it might want to show that it can function independently," said Christopher Roberts at the University of Canberra.
Campbell is due to meet Suu Kyi, who has spent 14 of the last 20 years in some form of detention, Wednesday. The junta last month allowed her to meet Western diplomats to discuss sanctions on the country.
(Writing and additional reporting by Martin Petty; Editing by Ron Popeski)
